Gold price target...2.250USD

EURUSD & 2Y €-Basisswap correlation chart

Circle of Socialism

 

Gold in CHF...and the gap of interventionist policy.

Chart EURCHF and foreign ccy reserves CHF

FYI...QE to infinity!

Real Gold price & S&P

Great chart showing the correlation between the real price of #Gold (Gold/ CCI Index) and the #S&P500!

Attached see chart of EURCHF and 3mth Euro Swiss!!!

Means negative 0.15 bps!!! Unbelievable...

Swiss SMI Index and EURCHF

The SNB seems ready to react for the sake of the Swiss stock market. Just 20% shy of the March 2009 lows...

Real 10Y German yields

What a chart! First time since more than 50Y that German real yields are essentially zero! Keep in mind: Markets are not random-they revert to the mean, eh?!

Gold in Euros

Gold in € looks capped...but only short term! The chart looks great for dip buyers and we expect 1200 €/Ounce this year!

DXY at important support

Have a look at the DXY! A violation of 75,66 underlines the downmove and will lead to amove to 70.70!

Gold/Silver Ratio at 39.40. Historic it was at 15 : 1 !!!

Silver versus Dow

Silver is still not rich against the DOW...

Gold/Silver ratio nearing 40!!!

Gold/Silver ratio nearing 40 (at the moment 41,30)! Keep in mind that the 40 mark is highly important.
Last time we have been there was in 1998 before exploding to 100.
Dow Transport and DOW show negative divergence and bearishness. So we think it's time to lighten up in silver for trading purposes....

Oil/Gas ratio at its highs

Ratio of Crude Oil vs Natural Gas!
Friends of mean reversion know what to start looking for, eh???

Inflation and the function of Centralbanks!!!

It is NOT that, what the Centralbanks and Politicans are telling us since ages.
They are not trying to stop inflation! The U.S. dollar Gold standard was abandoned in 1971!

Remember the 100Y Mexican bond?

FYI A perfect contrary indication, eh?! The bond was issued in October 2010... Let's wait for the US to come with a 100Y one...

Time for a halt in commodities?

Attached I've the chart where you can see the ratio of the CCI Index divided by US average hourly earnings private nonfarm payrolls services sa. As you can see the ratio is near its top from June2008 before the cruel sell off. With all the food shortage mumble going around it should be nice to keep this chart in mind...As always when the hype is at its peak markets have the tendency to be ironic...

Even the lean hogs mistrust Ben's deflation bias...

Orphanides says raw material prices no immediate ...

inflation risk.................Here is the chart for this argument!!

And now look, how artificially low yields are...

Inflation

The Chart shows the Ratio between CRB/Dow Jones and Gold/Dow Jones. As you can see, the Dow outperformed all Commodities over the last 20 years in USD terms. Since 2002 Commodities outpaced paper profits (aka inflated Dow Jones) in real puchasing power terms.. If the asset allocation shift out of paper assets into hard assets starts food prices will be the tail rsik and bottel neck for all of us!

Wheat...Watch out the squeeze!!!

Wheat targets 1000 USD if 850 USD gets lifted. COT suggests that Net Shorts will increase their exposure in the upmove. Prepare for a sell when the shorts got slaughtered...

Gold/Silver ratio vs S+P500 warns!!!

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Rising Gold/Silver ratio warned/warns for lower equities!!! See chart attached
The ratio is moving up after building a bottom and warns for a weaker equity market in a time frame of 2 to 4 weeks....If 50 in G/S ratio is lifted Credits should also start to underperform after this fabolous rally
CAVEAT EMPTOR

Bund chart and thinking out loud!

With the ongoing mumble for an increase in the EFSF (which is more or less a done thing to me) spreads in Euroland see a further compression (Spain 14 bps tighter on the day) while Bunds hover around their yesterday's low. Short end in Euroland (including the belly) is heavily under pressure with interest rate hike phantasy (hawkish ECB from last Thursday) still the name of the game. In short we think the following: A proper increase in EFSF fund (in order to guarantee or lend real 440 bln € or even more) will avoid a further market intervention from the ECB to buy peripheral bonds! Therefore they can play their independence and price stability game and might even lift the repo by 25 bps as Germany could easily absorb this. On the other hand the EFSF is the "undercover lender of last resort" and buys Euro peripheral bonds (FED style) in order to compress spreads, take pressure from the EUR, squeeze out shorts and reduce existing funding worries for candidates like Portugal, Ireland or Spain. Therefore the interest rate level for the peripheral countries would be reduced or at least held constant. European banks/insurance houses could also be relieved from buying heavy sizes of €-govies and see a rally in their peripheral govie books. Following today's German DAX performance one can see that insurance companies and banks lead the market upmove - it might be that the big boys already took the above mentioned arguments into account!? The implications for Bunds are obvious - 122.08 (see attachement) would be the first target before 120 and lower. Caveat emptor...........