Any EM impact so far? Nothing to see... move on!
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
Friday, September 21, 2012
A big mark for German DAX here at witchday...
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
DXY-Dollar Index long term chart pattern
Watching the pattern and time frame one could argue for a pronounced long term upmove in DXY! Not with QE to infinity...FYI
Fwd:Is there a better chart which explains the FED's
That's a good one I think as you can see the stages of the last three QEs (before we go to infinity) of the FED. White line is the IBOXX Credit spread, yellow the VIX Index and red the USD Index! As you see - QE1 brought VIX, the Credit spreads and the DXY down. QE2 came after a huge run up in DXY and after the equity sell off. IMO QE3 had nothing at all to do with deflation and as you can see with spreads in Credit (VIX nowadays at near all time lows <14) or anything else! If you believe what the FED says-that they take a stronger focus on employment it might make sense. To me it only has one purpose - to weaken the ccy and debase it and therefore QE to infinity is guaranteed and sure as death and taxes! A classical good old ccy war goes into a new round...
Friday, September 9, 2011
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Friday, August 12, 2011
Real Gold price & S&P
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Swiss SMI Index and EURCHF
What a chart! First time since more than 50Y that German real yields are essentially zero! Keep in mind: Markets are not random-they revert to the mean, eh?!Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Gold in Euros
Thursday, March 17, 2011
DXY at important support
Monday, March 7, 2011
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Gold/Silver ratio nearing 40!!!
Last time we have been there was in 1998 before exploding to 100.
Dow Transport and DOW show negative divergence and bearishness. So we think it's time to lighten up in silver for trading purposes....
Oil/Gas ratio at its highs
Friends of mean reversion know what to start looking for, eh???
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Inflation and the function of Centralbanks!!!
They are not trying to stop inflation! The U.S. dollar Gold standard was abandoned in 1971!
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Remember the 100Y Mexican bond?
FYI A perfect contrary indication, eh?! The bond was issued in October 2010... Let's wait for the US to come with a 100Y one...
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Time for a halt in commodities?
Attached I've the chart where you can see the ratio of the CCI Index divided by US average hourly earnings private nonfarm payrolls services sa. As you can see the ratio is near its top from June2008 before the cruel sell off. With all the food shortage mumble going around it should be nice to keep this chart in mind...As always when the hype is at its peak markets have the tendency to be ironic...
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Orphanides says raw material prices no immediate ...
inflation risk.................Here is the chart for this argument!!
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Inflation
The Chart shows the Ratio between CRB/Dow Jones and Gold/Dow Jones. As you can see, the Dow outperformed all Commodities over the last 20 years in USD terms. Since 2002 Commodities outpaced paper profits (aka inflated Dow Jones) in real puchasing power terms.. If the asset allocation shift out of paper assets into hard assets starts food prices will be the tail rsik and bottel neck for all of us!
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